🌐 CFSv2 - Long-Range Forecasts

NOAA's Climate Forecast System v2: weekly North America maps + monthly outlooks · updated Fri Oct 02, 03:52 PM ET

What CFSv2 is, and how far to trust it

CFSv2 is NOAA's coupled ocean-atmosphere model (the same model behind CPC's official monthly and seasonal outlooks). Unlike HRRR/GFS, it is built for weeks-to-months: it shows anomalies - how temperature or rain compares to normal - rather than exact weather. Weeks 1-2 have real skill and often line up with the CPC 6-10/8-14 outlooks. Weeks 3-4 and monthly are trends only: a blue blob means "cooler-than-normal is favored", not "it rains Tuesday". Compare against the CPC outlooks on the Climate page - agreement between them is a much stronger signal than either alone.

📅 Weekly North America maps (weeks 1-4)

Updated every model cycle from CPC's CFSv2 weekly product. Temperature panels show the anomaly (°F from normal); precipitation panels show the wet/dry signal.
Weeks 1-2 precipitationWeeks 1-2 precipitation
North America precipitation anomaly, model weeks 1-2. Blues = wet signal, browns = dry. This is the rain CFSv2 expects in days 1-14.
Weeks 1-2 temperatureWeeks 1-2 temperature
North America surface-temperature anomaly, model weeks 1-2. This is the temperature CFSv2 expects in days 1-14 - same style as the CPC 6-10/8-14 outlooks, but straight from the model.
Weeks 3-4 precipitationWeeks 3-4 precipitation
North America precipitation anomaly, model weeks 3-4 (days ~15-28).
Weeks 3-4 temperatureWeeks 3-4 temperature
North America surface-temperature anomaly, model weeks 3-4.

🗓️ Monthly outlook - November 2026

Ensemble-mean anomalies plus probability maps for the calendar month, from the CFSv2 monthly product. The probability panels answer "how confident is the model" - wide plumes mean low confidence.
Monthly temperature anomaly - November 2026Monthly temperature anomaly - November 2026
Monthly temperature probability - November 2026Monthly temperature probability - November 2026
Monthly precipitation anomaly - November 2026Monthly precipitation anomaly - November 2026
Monthly precipitation probability - November 2026Monthly precipitation probability - November 2026

🎯 Analog winters - past seasons like this ENSO state

Current ENSO: JJA 2026 ONI +1.80°C (strong)
WinterDJF ONIDiff from now
2023-24+1.84°C+0.04
1957-58+1.69°C-0.11
1972-73+1.55°C-0.25
1991-92+1.54°C-0.26
2009-10+1.47°C-0.33
When CFSv2's weeks 3-4 and monthly maps look uncertain, the closest historical analog winters are the reality check: what actually happened when the Pacific sat where it sits now. Full record book + NAO/PNA tags on the El Niño page.
Source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 weekly & monthly products (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov), mirrored every update cycle. Related on this site: CPC 6-10/8-14 day outlooks (Climate page), seasonal tilt map (Winter page), ENSO record book + analog years (El Niño page).