🚨 Severe storms

A couple of severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible this afternoon. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

A 500 mb cyclone continues to slowly drift eastward across the southern High Plains, accompanied by gradual destabilization (given widespread cloud cover). A cold front extends northeast from central KS to the TX Panhandle and is sagging southward from beneath the 500 mb cyclone. To the south and east of this front resides a marginally unstable airmass, characterized by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, as sampled by the 18Z DDC observed sounding. Given ongoing widespread clouds and precipitation, it is unclear how much additional destabilization will occur. Several storms undercut by the front have managed to produce multiple 40-50 kt gusts per regional ASOS/AWOS, roughly from Hamilton to Finney Counties in southwest KS. Assuming some surface gradient flow enhancement is underway, similar gusts may continue this afternoon. The best chance for a brief tornado will be with storms interacting with locally stronger ambient vertical vorticity not undercut by the front. At the moment, the best area would be in the warm sector along the KS/OK border. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain too localized and brief to warrant a WW issuance.